Allan lichtman’s prediction for 2024. Right now, president joe biden is favored to win in xxx out of 1,000 of our model’s.
Take a look at how polling errors in the last three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages. Story continues below advertisement advertisement
Updated Every Two Hours, This Is An Electoral Map Projection Derived From The Fivethirtyeight 2020 Election Forecast.
The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in november.
To Be Fair, The Forecast Outright States This:
An interactive electoral map derived from 538’s probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
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He trails by a slim margin in a few key states, and a shift or polling miss in his favor would not be.