For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. You will, however, need to register for a license in order to use the software.
Fivethirtyeight’s 2020 senate and house models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast.
This Article Explains How We Did It:
538 uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, science and life.
Data For Fivethirtyeight's Previous Favorability, Presidential Approval And National 2024 Republican Primary Averages Is Available For Download Here.
To mark the beginning of the official campaign period in advance of the may 7 election (now 38 days away), fivethirtyeight is launching united kingdom general.
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To Mark The Beginning Of The Official Campaign Period In Advance Of The May 7 Election (Now 38 Days Away), Fivethirtyeight Is Launching United Kingdom General.
(technically, out of a thousand simulations, biden wins 53% of the times and trump wins 47% of the times.)
For 2024, 538 Built A New Presidential Election Forecast Model From The Ground Up.
Data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here.